04.02.202603:05:36UTC+00New Zealand Dollar Ticks Down After Mixed Jobs Report

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar dipped to $0.603, retreating from its peak in nearly seven months. This movement was influenced by a mixed jobs report, which did little to alter policy expectations for the upcoming meeting. Notably, the country's unemployment rate increased to 5.4% in the fourth quarter—its highest since 2015—slightly surpassing both the prior figure and market forecasts of 5.3%. Concurrently, employment grew by 0.5% during the quarter, exceeding the anticipated 0.3% increase, indicating signs of stabilization in the labor market. These statistics generally aligned with the projections of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, supporting predictions that the official cash rate will remain steady at 2.25% at this month's meeting. Consequently, the prospect of an immediate rate hike has diminished, with expectations indicating no change until at least September. At that time, a 25 basis point increase is anticipated to occur with a probability of approximately 78%. Furthermore, the majority of economists project the first rate hike by December.