Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 144.97 occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed the upward move.

A sharp decline in machinery and equipment orders in Japan was offset by strong figures in Japan's trade balance surplus. This contrast highlights the current complex state of the Japanese economy, where strong external indicators balance internal problems. The drop in machinery and equipment orders, traditionally seen as a leading indicator of future business activity, raises concerns about the outlook for domestic investment. This decline may indicate weakening business confidence, possibly due to global economic uncertainty. However, the positive trade surplus provides some relief. The increase in exports is likely due to rising foreign demand for Japanese goods despite the U.S. trade tariffs hindering Japanese exports.

Still, it is hard to imagine the U.S. dollar losing significantly against the yen in the current geopolitical turmoil. More likely, the opposite will happen.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 145.18 (green line on the chart), with a target of 145.97 (thicker green line). Around 145.97, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip move back from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.84 level when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential and lead to a reversal upward. One can then expect a rise to the opposite levels of 145.18 and 145.97.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 144.84 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 144.33, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip retracement). Selling pressure may return quickly today.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 145.18 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop to the opposite levels of 144.84 and 144.33 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.