empty
19.06.2025 11:07 AM
BTC/USD Analysis on June 19, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart has become more complex in recent months. A corrective downward structure formed and completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a fairly strong upward movement began, which could be an impulsive uptrend. The second wave of this segment appeared very shallow and unconvincing. Therefore, I consider the current section to be impulsive. If this is indeed the case, then the structure is still missing a convincing fifth wave, whose peak should be above that of wave 3. Based on this, I expect one more final upward impulse. A successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level would indicate a continuation of the upward movement, which could potentially extend further under certain conditions.

The news background supports Bitcoin, but not consistently. I would say that market participants either interpret any news as favorable for the leading cryptocurrency or simply ignore it altogether and continue buying. We are witnessing the formation of an upward trend driven by emotion, demand, and faith in Bitcoin's future sky-high valuation. The rise from $75,000 to $111,000 exhibits typical signs of a rapid, speculative increase in price. Such movements are often followed by a subsequent decline.

In recent weeks, BTC/USD has been trading between $101,560 (76.4% Fibonacci) and $109,970 (100.0% Fibonacci). The wave structure of the upward movement that began on April 9 appears unfinished – it's still missing a convincing fifth wave, as the entire section looks impulsive. Some analysts had expected that an escalation in the Middle East conflict or the Fed meeting might influence Bitcoin's price, but that didn't happen. The market's reaction to the military conflict between Israel and Iran was weak. There was no reaction to the Fed's meeting at all. Based on this, I believe we are still likely to see a clear fifth wave. The escalating situation in the Middle East is a negative factor for Bitcoin, as investors tend to seek "safe havens" during times of geopolitical tension. In such periods, risk assets usually fall out of favor. However, Bitcoin demand has hardly declined over the past week, suggesting that the market is still willing to keep buying.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is near its historical highs. I understand that many economists and analysts continue to predict $150,000 and even $200,000 Bitcoin levels this year, but few of them explain why that should happen. "Growth in institutional demand" may certainly be a contributing factor, but in my view, stronger reasons are needed to expect a 1.5x–2x rise. I lean toward the view that Bitcoin doesn't have much room left for growth.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the upward wave structure is still developing, though it has an odd character and weak fundamentals. The news background was not the cause of Bitcoin's sharp rise, and the $110,000 level has capped buyer strength for the fourth consecutive time. Ignoring the wave count, I would say a new downward trend is forming. Therefore, a new at least corrective wave can be expected with targets below $100,200. Still, we have not seen a definitive fifth wave.

On a larger wave scale, the upward trend is continuing, but its internal wave structure remains highly ambiguous due to the near-complete absence of corrective waves.

My Key Analysis Principles

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are harder to interpret and are often subject to revision.
  2. If there's no clarity in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

2025年7月25日,Solana上的死亡交叉指數移動平均(EMA)條件確認賣方仍然占主導地位,儘管可能會出現暫時的強勢。

Solana – 2025年7月25日,星期五 在EMA出現死亡交叉狀態且RSI(14)處於中性看跌狀態的情況下,Solana加密貨幣顯示賣家仍然佔優勢,因此今天的潛在疲軟仍然存在。 關鍵水平 1. 阻力位2:199.25。

Arief Makmur 12:03 2025-07-25 UTC+2

萊特幣的 RSI 指標出現背離現象,顯示其上行潛力可能會受限,直至 2025 年 7 月 25 日(星期五)的樞軸水平。

萊特幣 – 2025年7月25日,星期五 RSI(14) 指標與萊特幣價格走勢之間出現背離,顯示上升空間可能有限。RSI(14) 仍然處於中性看跌狀態,兩條EMA形成死亡交叉,顯示賣方的主導地位。

Arief Makmur 12:03 2025-07-25 UTC+2

比特幣暴跌至$115,000

遲早都會發生這件事。在比特幣勇敢地嘗試突破12萬美元之後,價格下跌至接近11萬5千美元。

Jakub Novak 09:41 2025-07-25 UTC+2

7月25日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣暴跌,考驗115,000的標準,而以太坊則沒有面臨此類問題。 顯然,比特幣的急劇下跌不過是大市場參與者的獲利回吐。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:13 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Tether 充滿信心地邁向進入美國市場

比特幣持續在116,500至120,000的區間波動,展現出穩定的波動性。然而,以太坊的表現則明顯較差,這是受到近期現貨ETF流入下降的影響。

Jakub Novak 10:07 2025-07-24 UTC+2

7月24日加密貨幣市場的交易建議

比特幣再次嘗試突破 $119,000,但未能成功,今天退回至 $117,000 水準。以太坊則跌回至 $3,600 之下,目前朝 $3,500 區域邁進,顯示在測試靠近 $3,800 的阻力位後,進一步修正。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:20 2025-07-24 UTC+2

以太坊需求旺盛

最近幾週,Ethereum 表現出爆炸式增長,但仍未超過其歷史最高值。顯然,隨著新資金流入市場,Ethereum 正面臨需求的激增。

Jakub Novak 15:57 2025-07-23 UTC+2

現貨以太坊不斷吸收新資金

儘管以太幣跌破了3,700美元大關,但以太坊現貨ETF的資金淨流入昨日達到5.339億美元,為自其推出以來第三大單日流入量。 根據SoSoValue的數據,BlackRock的iShares Ethereum Trust(ETHA)在週二錄得4.262億美元的資金淨流入,而Grayscale的Ethereum Mini Trust吸引了7,260萬美元的資金。

Jakub Novak 12:07 2025-07-23 UTC+2

7月23日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣再次突破119,000美元,短暫超過了120,000美元大關,但隨後回撤至約118,500美元。這顯示出回到接近123,000美元的歷史高位面臨相當大的困難。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:18 2025-07-23 UTC+2

加密貨幣市場:山寨幣季節勢頭增強

加密貨幣市場正顯示出進入新一輪山寨幣季節的強烈跡象——這是一段山寨幣加速增長的時期。七月中旬,DOGE/USD 匹配回到了中期牛市區,同時仍然處於長期和全球看漲趨勢中。

Jurij Tolin 16:46 2025-07-22 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.