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04.08.2025 05:10 AM
EUR/USD Forecast for August 4, 2025

The euro's 170-pip rally on Friday represented a 50% correction from the extremes observed between July 24 and August 1. While the technical picture has noticeably shifted, the core medium-term bearish scenario for the European currency remains intact.

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We believe the correction is now complete, and the EUR/USD pair will attempt to reach the target support level at 1.1266, with pullbacks expected from intermediate levels.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line, but for this move to be classified as a false breakout, a return below this line must occur.

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This may be the euro's objective for the entire day, as the market likely needs time to cool down after such a sharp rally — especially given that today is a public holiday in both the UK and Canada.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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