Trade Review and Pound Trading Recommendations

The price test at 1.3534 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair gained 10 points.

In the absence of UK news, the British pound maintained its dominance against the U.S. dollar, but further strengthening of the pound remains uncertain. Traders are cautious as they await clearer signals from the Bank of England, concerned about the possibility of more aggressive rate cuts in the near future.

In the second half of the day, only very weak U.S. existing home sales data could allow the GBP/USD pair to continue its upward trend. If the housing market data disappoints, it could weaken the dollar and open the way for further strengthening of the pound. Investors may see this as a signal to increase GBP/USD positions, expecting the bullish momentum to continue. However, strong housing figures could change the outlook entirely, potentially triggering a decline in GBP/USD as investors take profits and shift toward safer assets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today around the entry point at 1.3551 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3580 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3580, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move. Pound gains are likely only after weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests the 1.3528 level twice, at a time when the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3551 and 1.3580 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3528 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick drop. The key target for sellers is 1.3498, where I plan to exit short positions and open long trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in reverse). Sellers are likely to act if U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests the 1.3551 level twice, when the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3528 and 1.3498 can be expected.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually close profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually close profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – for market entries, rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.