empty
 
 
24.07.2025 12:23 PM
XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Currently, gold continues to lose ground. Recent news of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, as well as reports that the US and the European Union are nearing a tariff agreement, are maintaining positive sentiment in the markets. However, these factors have been putting pressure on the safe-haven asset — gold — for the second consecutive day.

This image is no longer relevant
At the same time, the US dollar is attracting some buying interest and appears to have broken a three-day losing streak. This contributes to capital outflows from bullion and adds downward pressure on gold prices. Nevertheless, a strong dollar recovery remains unlikely under current conditions due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the future path of Fed rate cuts. Additionally, concerns about the independence of the US central bank could limit dollar strength and lend some support to the precious metal.

On Tuesday evening, US President Donald Trump stated that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. In addition, reports of progress in US-EU trade talks, with potential returns of 15%, are boosting investor confidence and continuing to weigh on gold as a safe-haven for a second day.

Markets do not expect a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in July, despite Trump's ongoing pressure to reduce borrowing costs. Moreover, Trump has personally criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining current interest rate levels and has repeatedly called for his resignation.

Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both appointed by Trump, have supported a rate cut at the upcoming July 30 policy meeting. These comments are keeping the dollar suppressed, thereby offering some support to gold.

Today, traders should monitor the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which will provide new insight into the global economic outlook and influence demand for precious metals. In addition, the European Central Bank's key policy decision may trigger market volatility and impact the XAU/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that gold prices may find support in the $3358–3360 zone. A convincing break below this level would open the way toward $3335, where the 50-day SMA lies. This level would become a critical support; a decisive drop below it would shift the bias in favor of the bears.

On the other hand, momentum above the key $3400 level could face resistance at $3438–3440, which aligns with the July high. A breakout above this zone would accelerate the bullish momentum toward the all-time high near the psychological level of $3500, last seen in April.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $4000 more!
    In July we raffle $4000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback