Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1592 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1615. Selling from that level on a rebound made it possible to capture more than 20 points of profit.

Buyers of the European currency showed some activity at the beginning of the European trading session; however, after the release of disappointing Eurozone PMI data, pressure on the pair quickly returned. This highlights the continued fragility of demand for the euro and suggests that any recovery attempts may be temporary unless supported by fundamental and geopolitical factors.

In the near future, a number of important macroeconomic indicators are expected to be released, which could significantly influence market sentiment. Attention will be focused on manufacturing PMI data. Positive PMI dynamics may indicate accelerating economic growth in the U.S. At the same time, market participants will closely monitor the release of a similar index for the services sector. This sector is the main driver of GDP, so its condition is crucial for assessing the overall economic situation. Growth in this index would indicate active sector expansion, supporting the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1597 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1622. At 1.1622, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be expected today after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1582 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1597 and 1.1622 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1582 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1550, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1597 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1582 and 1.1550 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.