29.10.202508:01:02UTC+00Fed Expected to Deliver Another 25bps Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points during its meeting in October 2025, adjusting the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. This action follows a similar reduction in September, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest point since 2022. Market participants will be keenly observing for any indications regarding the December meeting, although it's unlikely that policymakers will provide significant new insights. The policy landscape has grown more unpredictable due to the government shutdown, which has postponed the release of crucial economic data. Among the limited available data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a rise in headline inflation to 3%, while core inflation slightly decreased to the same level. According to ADP data, the private sector averaged an addition of 14,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 11. Additionally, an estimate from the Chicago Fed suggested that the unemployment rate for September remained largely steady at 4.34%. Furthermore, traders anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might consider pausing the reduction of Treasury securities within its $6.6 trillion balance sheet.