Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.95 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

In the second half of the day, everything will depend on the data for the manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Rising figures will lead to new growth in USD/JPY. Investors and traders always watch these indicators closely, as they serve as an important barometer of the U.S. economy. An improvement in manufacturing activity usually indicates economic growth, which in turn strengthens the dollar.

The Institute for Supply Management's index, in particular, is an authoritative indicator reflecting the views of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. A sharp rise in the ISM index could spark a surge of optimism in the market. If the PMI and ISM data exceed forecasts, the dollar can be expected to strengthen against the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 148.75 (green line on the chart), targeting 149.48 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.48, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the level. Growth in the pair will be possible only within the channel. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.38 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 148.75 and 149.48.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break of the 148.38 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.97, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.75 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 148.38 and 147.97.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – indicative price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – indicative price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.