Review of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.1521 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving below the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

The sharp 3.8% decline in German industrial orders in April created problems for the euro. Particularly concerning was the drop in new orders, which serve as a leading indicator of future manufacturing activity. A 3.8% decrease compared with the previous month suggests that German manufacturers are facing increasing difficulties in securing new contracts. This may be attributed to several factors, including persistent inflation, rising energy costs, and a global slowdown in demand, particularly from key trading partners. The decline in the euro was a direct consequence of this disappointing data.

Given the absence of any U.S. economic releases during the second half of the day, market participants will focus on any unexpected comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates. Remarks from voting FOMC members concerning monetary policy will be particularly important. Any hints of further policy tightening could trigger significant price movements and strengthen the U.S. dollar against the euro. Investors will closely monitor any signals capable of altering expectations regarding the regulator's future actions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases may be considered if the price reaches the 1.1533 level (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1570. At 1.1570, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. However, expecting a strong rise in the euro today may be difficult.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1510 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1533 and 1.1570 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1510 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1480, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move. Selling pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1533 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1510 and 1.1480 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.