Review of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 160.31 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 25 points, reaching the target level of 160.04.

There are no U.S. economic releases scheduled for the second half of the day, which will force traders to focus on various news reports and rumors related to the Middle East, as well as potential currency interventions by Japanese authorities. Unpredictable statements from Trump could also trigger sharp fluctuations in the currency market, further weakening the yen against the U.S. dollar. However, active intervention by the Bank of Japan above the 160-yen level is likely to remain a key limiting factor for buyers. As a result, the upcoming trading period promises elevated volatility. With no macroeconomic data scheduled, even secondary news developments may have a disproportionately strong impact on USD/JPY price action. Traders will need to remain vigilant and be prepared to adapt quickly to incoming information.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 160.13 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 160.39 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.39, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move. A rise in the pair today can be expected if negative news emerges regarding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.98 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 160.13 and 160.39 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 159.98 level (the red line on the chart), which is expected to trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.66, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the central bank intervenes.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 160.13 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 159.98 and 159.66 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.