Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1525 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The influence of the Federal Reserve's statements regarding the need to maintain caution on interest rate cuts has weakened, allowing buyers of the euro to continue the corrective rise in the EUR/USD pair. The market seems to have absorbed the central bank's position and no longer views it as an unconditional factor in strengthening the U.S. currency. The lack of key fundamental data due to the shutdown also became a significant factor yesterday, weighing on the dollar.

Today's data will include the trade balance for both Germany and France, as well as a speech from the head of the German Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. These factors will undoubtedly influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory. Information on Germany's trade balance will reflect the overall health of the European economy and the competitiveness level of German exports. Positive figures are likely to strengthen the euro, while negative figures may lead to its weakening. Similarly, data on France's trade balance will help assess the economic condition of the Eurozone's second-largest economy. Investor attention will focus on the dynamics of export-import operations to understand how successfully French companies compete on the global stage.

However, the key event will be President Joachim Nagel's speech. His comments on the current economic situation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as the prospects for the European Central Bank's monetary policy, may significantly affect the euro's exchange rate.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I will consider buying the euro if the price reaches around 1.1541 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1573. At 1.1573, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, aiming for a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. An expectation of the euro rising can be based on good data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1527 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1541 and 1.1573.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1527 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1499, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (aiming for a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1541 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1527 and 1.1499.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.