Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.95 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the dollar—especially after Friday's major sell-off.

In the second half of the day, U.S. factory orders data is expected. However, even strong numbers are unlikely to serve as a powerful driver for dollar strength. The market will likely react moderately. Traders remain focused on recent U.S. labor market data, which continues to weigh on the dollar. Therefore, the higher the USD/JPY pair climbs today, the more likely we are to see another sharp sell-off. As for factory orders, even a substantial upside surprise is likely to have only a short-term impact on the dollar.

Regarding intraday strategy, I'll primarily rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.01 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.61 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.61, I'll exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the level). A strong rally in the pair today is unlikely. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.63 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Target levels: 148.01 and 148.61.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 147.63 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.10, where I'll exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure will likely return if U.S. data disappoints. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.01 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. Targets: 147.63 and 147.10.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – Entry price to buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking point, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price to sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking point, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – Use overbought and oversold zones to guide market entries

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear and structured plan—like the one I've outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.