Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1716 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Positive data from the Eurozone manufacturing PMI triggered a wave of euro buying in the first half of the day. Improved investor sentiment about the outlook for the European economy was reflected in stronger demand for the euro. The PMI figures eased concerns about a Eurozone recession, as well as the fact that the manufacturing sector had shown no signs of growth for a considerable period.

Given today's holiday in the United States, no new economic releases are expected. As a result, lower volatility and trading volumes are forecast. Under such conditions, the risk of sudden and false price movements increases. Isolated local news can strongly influence the pair's direction. However, such sharp moves are usually followed by equally sharp reversals. Overall, today is expected to be quiet and unlikely to provide much new information. Traders are advised to remain cautious and avoid unnecessary risk.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1734 (green line on the chart), with the target at 1.1759. At 1.1759, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1716 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1734 and 1.1759 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1716 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1692, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1734 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1716 and 1.1692 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – indicative price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – indicative price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.