2025.09.0802:11:20UTC+00Offshore Yuan Retreats Ahead of Trade Data

The offshore yuan slipped below 7.13 per dollar on Monday, reversing the gains seen in the previous session. This decline comes as investors exercise caution in anticipation of forthcoming trade balance data. Market forecasts suggest a slowdown in China's export growth for August, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US as the temporary uplift from the tariff truce diminishes. Additionally, the elevated base from the prior year and the looming threat of increased US duties on rerouted goods are further dampening momentum. Projections indicate a 3% rise in imports, a slight decrease from July's 4.1%, reflecting subdued domestic demand given challenges in the property market, job insecurity, and tightened stimulus measures. The trade surplus is anticipated to reach $99.2 billion, marginally surpassing July's $98.2 billion but still considerably lower than June's $114.7 billion. With data indicating nearly a 25% drop in container ship departures to the US in late August, exporters are facing increasing pressure, prompting analysts to suggest that policymakers may need to consider new support measures. In a separate development, China is reopening its bond market to Russian energy companies through panda bonds, indicating strengthened ties with Moscow.