Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The first price test at 147.19 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test at 147.19 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, which allowed scenario No. 2 for selling to be realized.

Due to the U.S. holiday, the publication of key economic indicators is not scheduled. This is expected to lead to reduced price fluctuations and overall activity in the markets. With a lack of major events capable of influencing the market, traders' attention will shift to secondary factors such as technical indicators and domestic economic news. Under such conditions, the likelihood of false signals and unpredictable movements caused by speculative activity increases. In particular, unexpected statements from influential figures or corporate earnings reports may cause short-term price fluctuations. However, such events are unlikely to have a significant impact on the broader market dynamics.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 147.25 (green line on the chart), with a target at 147.56 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.56, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the level. Growth of the pair can only be expected within the channel. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 146.99 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 147.25 and 147.56 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break of the 146.99 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.65, where I will close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.25 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 146.99 and 146.65 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – indicative price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – indicative price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.