Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1694 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move above the zero mark, confirming it as a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1712.

However, the rise of the euro was not sustained. The strong data released yesterday, reflecting an increase in manufacturing and service activities in the United States in April, contributed to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Particularly encouraging were the results in the services sector, which returned to growth. The PMI index for this sector also came in above expectations, reflecting a stable demand for goods and services.

Today promises to be rich in economic events. In the first half of the day, the key event will be the release of the new IFO Business Climate Index report. This comprehensive indicator, which includes assessments of the current state of affairs and future prospects, serves as one of the crucial measures of the German economy. The IFO Institute surveys thousands of German enterprises across various sectors, from manufacturing to services, every month. The collected information provides invaluable insights into how business leaders assess current business conditions and their expectations for the future. Given the situation in the Middle East and the new energy crisis, it's essential to closely monitor the dynamics of the overall business climate index, including its components—current situation and expectations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1690 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1716. At point 1.1716, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. An increase in the euro can only be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1676 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1690 and 1.1716.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1676 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1645, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today may return if the situation in the Middle East worsens. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1690 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1676 and 1.1645.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.