On the hourly chart, EUR/USD continued to rise on Monday after consolidating above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, but not for long. Today, a rebound from this level will again favor the European currency and continued growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1789. A consolidation below 1.1695 will favor the U.S. currency and a decline toward the support zone at 1.1637–1.1645.

The wave setup on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the highs of previous waves, while the last downward wave broke the prior low only by a few points. Thus, the trend may again shift to bullish, though there is also a chance of continued sideways movement. Recent labor market data and shifting Fed monetary policy expectations are supporting the bulls.

On Monday, there were no major economic events, and even Christine Lagarde's speech contained little of importance. The ECB President spoke about the "French crisis," which could lead to the dissolution of parliament and early elections. However, this information had little effect on the euro. Traders remain focused on this week's releases related to labor market conditions, business activity, job openings, and unemployment. None of these reports have been published yet, so the market continues to wait. Today, the eurozone inflation report will be released, which could influence sentiment. Still, it seems traders are waiting for something else. The nearest significant release is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, due later today. The main question for the market remains what decision the FOMC will make in two weeks. In my view, the probability of further pair growth remains high.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made another reversal in favor of the euro and consolidated above 1.1680. This level has been frequently crossed lately, so I do not recommend paying much attention to it. The picture on the hourly chart is much more informative and clearer, with more levels to work with. No emerging divergences are visible today on any indicator. The 4-hour chart also clearly shows the sideways movement of recent weeks.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,667 long contracts and 1,373 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, strengthened over time by Donald Trump's policies. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is now 258,000, compared to 135,000 short contracts—a nearly twofold difference. Also, note the large number of green cells in the table above. They reflect strong position building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro is rising, while interest in the dollar is falling.

For twenty-nine consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policy remains the most important factor for traders, as it could create many long-term, structural problems for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators are showing declines.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).
• U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC).

On September 2, the economic calendar contains two important releases. Market sentiment on Tuesday will be influenced both in the morning and in the afternoon.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if it closes below 1.1695 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1637–1.1645. Buying the pair is possible today on a rebound from 1.1695, with a target of 1.1789.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.