On Monday, I got the impression that very few people in Europe knew what concessions von der Leyen was about to make. The American side of the negotiation was likely presenting its demands not only to the President of the European Commission, and that von der Leyen was not reviewing them alone. Therefore, when Germany, France, and Italy virtually "exploded" with outrage on Monday, I'm left wondering — what exactly were these countries expecting?

It's clear to all my readers that the strongest suffer the most, but they also stand to gain the most. Since this agreement is a failure for the EU, the strongest economies will bear the biggest losses this time. Simply put, the tariffs agreed upon by Trump and von der Leyen will primarily hit the industrial economies — not Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. All will incur losses, but the consequences of von der Leyen's deal will have to be cleaned up first and foremost by the EU's leading economies, not the smallest ones.

The claim that tariffs won't be raised to 30% or higher is also a questionable benefit for Europeans. Any comparison should be made with the pre–trade war conditions, not the situation over the past month. If we compare the terms of the new deal to those in 2024, tariffs on EU imports have increased fourfold. The fact that Brussels failed to negotiate zero tariffs is a problem for the European Union.

Moreover, the provision regarding "investment in the American economy" continues to raise many questions. First, Japan agreed to invest over half a billion dollars in American companies, and now the EU is following suit. According to the agreement with Japan, the majority of the profits will go to Americans, not the Japanese. So what does this mean — are these funds just a one-time donation to the U.S.? What exactly is the nature of these investments, and what benefit do they bring to the EU?

In the end, Europe may have avoided the most negative scenario of 30% tariffs or higher, but in reality, it will end up paying the same amount of money in other forms. As for the dollar, market participants were reducing demand for it not because of the trade war itself, but due to Donald Trump's policies, which also include the trade sphere. As we can see, Trump's methods haven't changed, so for now, I expect only a corrective wave pattern on both instruments.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis, I conclude that EUR/USD is continuing to build a bullish trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly decisions by Trump and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of this trend segment could reach as far as the 1.25 area. Accordingly, I continue to consider buying positions with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to a 161.8% Fibonacci, and possibly higher. A failed attempt to break through the 1.1572 level (corresponding to 100.0% Fibonacci) suggests that the market is poised for new buying, although the presumed Wave 4 appears to be unfolding in a three-wave structure.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly impact the wave structure. However, the current working scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish trend segment are now located around 1.4017, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci from the assumed global Wave 2. The market is currently building a corrective set of waves as part of Wave 4, which classically consists of three waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If you're uncertain about the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in the direction of movement is never possible. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.