The American currency remains a main paradox in the currency market. Whereas its movements from January to June raised no questions, given the news background, many questions have arisen in September and October. First, the corrective structure, which was supposed to be simple and clear, unexpectedly began to complicate and take on a very elongated appearance without any clear reason. Second, the demand for the US dollar is rising (as we examined in the previous two reviews), for which there is no basis at all. As a result, the wave analysis is becoming more complex, and many market participants do not understand what is happening.

There will be several important events in the US, but October was also marked by significant news that the market did not pay much attention to. If a similar situation occurs in November, there may be no need to review the reports at all. On Monday, a fairly significant ISM manufacturing index will be released. On Tuesday, the regular JOLTS report will NOT be released. On Wednesday, the ISM services index and the ADP labor market report will come out. On Friday, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will be published, but the unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls will NOT be released. As we can see, the most important reports of the week will again NOT be released.

Judging the state of the labor market will once again have to rely on the single ADP report. The business activity indexes are undoubtedly important, but they do not have a decisive influence on the Fed's monetary policy. If the market continues to interpret the absence of crucial statistical information in favor of the dollar, then yes, the American currency will continue to rise in value. It seems that the market is currently following the logic of "no reports – no problems." How reasonable is this? Absolutely unreasonable. But that is how it is.

Based on all the above, next week, the most crucial factor will not be the reports or statements from Donald Trump, but the market's sentiment towards the dollar. If it does not change, demand for the US currency may continue to increase, regardless of the official statistics.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Currently, the market is in a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's stance remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets for the current section of the trend may extend up to the 25 level. At this time, we can observe the development of corrective wave 4, which takes on a very complex and elongated appearance. Therefore, in the near future, I am still considering only purchases, as any downward structures have a corrective nature. The latest structure, a-b-c-d-e, may be nearing completion.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 takes on a three-wave appearance, and its structure is significantly more elongated than wave 2. Another downward corrective structure is close to completion. I continue to expect the main wave structure to resume its development, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels, and I believe this could occur as early as the beginning of November.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out and often lead to changes.
2. If there is uncertainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.