Forex Analysis & Reviews: 07.07.2025 - Canceled deals, fresh...

07.07.2025 02:07 PM

Canceled deals, fresh letters – marching toward trade chaos? Trader's calendar for June 7-9

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Symbolically, it was on July 4, Independence Day, that Donald Trump signed what he himself called the "Big Beautiful Bill," which, according to the White House, will "fulfill campaign promises." In reality, however, this document may mark the start of a new era of fiscal irresponsibility. Or chaos? Trump compared the bill's effect to "the launch of a spaceship," claiming the US economy would soar and become "magnificent."

For now, though, the radar shows not acceleration but a sharp increase in federal spending and a new debt ceiling set at $5 trillion. The bill barely cleared Congress: in the Senate, votes were evenly split, and Vice President J.D. Vance cast the deciding vote. In the House of Representatives, the margin was just four votes: 218 in favor and 214 against.

The document itself runs nearly 900 pages. Its main provisions envisage tax cuts, increased spending on security, defense, energy, and tighter control over the US southern border.

Roughly $350 billion will be allocated to implement Trump's national security agenda. Part of these funds will be directed to strengthening the border with Mexico and expanding the staff of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. However, this funding does not come from higher revenues but from cuts – in particular, to the Medicaid program that provides assistance to the most vulnerable citizens.

Democrats have already unleashed fierce criticism. Ken Martin, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Republicans had "sent America a message: if you are not a billionaire, we don't give a damn about you." Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib went even further, warning that tens of thousands of people will "die every year because of this deadly budget." Meanwhile, the White House is preparing a new offensive – this time on the international economic front.

Starting Monday, the US administration is set to start sending letters to importing countries detailing the new tariff rates. Trump personally informed reporters aboard Air Force One that the mailings would begin on Monday. He referred to roughly a dozen letters. But which countries will be targeted and which goods will land in the epicenter of the tariff storm remains unknown. According to the president, the tariffs will take effect on August 1 and could reach as high as 70%. This announcement is a continuation of the policy launched back in April, when Trump declared tariffs on imports from 185 countries, only to suspend them for 90 days.

The deadline for this tariff pause expires on July 9. During this time, only three deals have been signed — with the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and within a framework agreement with China. And in mid-May, Trump stated outright that no further negotiations were necessary — it was enough simply to notify partners of the new rates. All this is unfolding against the backdrop of a declared course to reduce the budget deficit. But the law just signed does exactly the opposite, as it envisions a surge in borrowing. According to current estimates, the new debt ceiling will be exhausted by mid-2027.

Between July 2025 and June 2026, up to $3 trillion in issuance is planned, with the remaining $2 trillion to be placed before the end of Trump's presidential term. Will they manage it? Probably. Will it be enough? Unlikely. And most importantly — who will buy this debt? Previously, the top 3 investors included the Federal Reserve and non-residents. Now these sources are under threat:

The US Fed has abandoned QE (quantitative easing)
Foreign partners are increasingly subject to sanctions, tariffs, and political blows
The loyalty of such investors is a conditional thing

The situation is becoming especially alarming considering the White House's aggressive style. Donald Trump himself is dismantling the market support for the dollar by pushing away capital that could have funded his expansionist agenda. Technically, the new law takes effect immediately rather than at the start of a new fiscal year, as is usually the case. The only exceptions apply to certain sections where the timing is strictly defined.

At the same time, the document contains neither a detailed calendar nor a year-by-year breakdown of spending on defense or immigration policy. All this creates broad room for interpretation and flexibility — or for abuse. Interestingly, according to sources, Trump did not actually read the text of the bill. He only oversaw the general direction, while the core principles of his program easily fit on a single sheet.

Within the machinery of power, Trump has undoubtedly become a master of political combat. Recently, he subordinated the judiciary through a series of high-profile executive orders and has now secured a victory over the legislative branch as well. His strength lies in the fact that he doesn't play by the rules — he rewrites them to suit himself. "The American stock market is at record highs. We're going to keep it that way," the US president declared.

June 7, 2:30 / Japan / ** / Wage Growth in May / prev.: 2.3% / actual: 2.0% / forecast: 2.4% / USD/JPY – down

According to Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, nominal wages in the country rose by 2.0% year-over-year in April after an increase of 2.3% in the previous month. At the same time, real incomes, adjusted for inflation and reflecting household purchasing power, declined for the fourth consecutive month. If wage growth accelerates to 2.4% in May, it could strengthen expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and support the yen against the dollar.

June 7, 9:00 / Germany / **/ Industrial Production Growth in May (m/m) / prev.: 2.3% / actual: -1.4% / forecast: -0.5% / EUR/USD – up

Industrial production in Germany contracted by 1.4% in April, a decline deeper than anticipated. This marked the sharpest drop since December and came amid reduced output across most sectors. The hardest hit were pharmaceuticals (-17.7%) and machinery manufacturing (-2.4%). Meanwhile, growth was recorded in construction (+1.4%) and food production (+5.7%). Output in energy-intensive industries also fell by 2.1%. Despite the short-term decline, the three-month moving average showed a 0.5% increase. If the contraction in May proves to be moderate as forecasted, it may lend support to the euro.

June 7, 9:00 / United Kingdom / ** / Halifax House Price Index in June / prev.: 3.2% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 2.2% / GBP/USD – down

In May, UK house prices rose by 2.5% year-over-year, according to Halifax data. This marked the smallest gain since July of last year (after 3.2% in April). On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.4%, offsetting April's 0.3% increase that followed changes to the stamp duty. The average property price stood at £296,600, compared to nearly £298,000 a month earlier. The market remains stable, with prices down only 0.2% since the start of the year. However, affordability challenges persist despite support from mortgage rates and wage growth. If the June figure falls to 2.2% as forecasted, this could intensify pressure on the pound.

June 7, 12:00 / Eurozone / ** / Retail Sales Growth in May / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 2.3% / forecast: 1.7% / EUR/USD – down

Retail sales in the euro area rose by 2.3% year-over-year in April, accelerating from a 1.9% increase in March. According to Eurostat, this exceeds the average pace seen over recent decades. If growth slows to 1.7% in May as forecasted, it could strengthen expectations for a dovish monetary policy stance by the ECB and weigh on the euro.

June 8, 4:30 / Australia / ** / NAB Business Confidence Index in June / prev.: -1 pt / actual: 2 pts / forecast: -5 pts / AUD/USD – down

Australia's NAB Business Confidence Index rose to +2 pts in May after a negative reading of -1 pt the previous month. This was the first positive result since January and the highest level in four months. Improvement in sentiment was recorded across most sectors except manufacturing, mining, and wholesale trade. However, business conditions weakened for the second consecutive month (0 pts vs. 2 pts), as did employment (0 pts vs. 4 pts). Sales also slowed (5 pts vs. 6 pts), especially in retail and manufacturing. Forward orders improved slightly, while capital expenditures and capacity utilization increased. Labor costs edged higher, while product price growth moderated. As NAB emphasized, sluggish conditions may restrain the recovery in confidence. If the index falls to -5 pts in June, this could intensify pressure on the Australian dollar.

June 8, 7:30, 8:30 / *** / Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference / prev.: 4.10% / actual: 3.85% / forecast: 3.60% / AUD/USD – down

At its May meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first easing since January. The move to a more accommodative monetary stance was driven by inflation returning to the target range of 2-3% and a more balanced risk profile for price stability. At the same time, the RBA pointed to persisting external uncertainty, particularly due to rising trade barriers imposed by the United States. The Bank also cautioned that it stands ready to act decisively should global conditions deteriorate. While gradual acceleration in GDP growth is expected, domestic consumption and external demand remain weak. If the regulator cuts the rate again in June to 3.60%, the Australian currency may continue to weaken.

June 8, 9:00 / Germany / *** / Exports in May (m/m) / prev.: 1.1% / actual: -1.7% / forecast: 0% / EUR/USD – up

Germany's exports declined by 1.7% m/m in April, sliding to a three-month low of €131.1 billion. The contraction was steeper than expected and fully offset March's gains. The primary driver behind the drop was a sharp fall in shipments to the United States (-10.5%) amid new tariffs. Exports also decreased to:

China (-5.9%)
United Kingdom (-2.1%)
Russia (-5.3%)

At the same time, deliveries to the EU increased (+0.9%), especially to non-eurozone countries (+1.8%). If exports stabilize at zero growth in May as projected, the euro may sustain its upward momentum on the back of steadier external trade.

June 8, 17:00 / Canada / ** / Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in June / prev.: 47.9 pts / actual: 48.9 pts / forecast: 49.1 pts / USD/CAD – down

Canada's Ivey PMI came in at 48.9 pts in May after 47.9 pts in April but remained below the neutral 50-point threshold, indicating restrained economic activity. The employment gauge improved (51.1 pts vs. 48.0), while inventories increased, reflecting a trend toward stockpiling. The supplier deliveries index also rose, signaling slower logistics. However, pricing pressure eased, with the prices index dropping to 66.9 from 70.0 pts. If the indicator climbs to 49.1 pts in June, this would strengthen the Canadian dollar as expectations grow for stabilization in the business cycle.

June 8, 23:30 / US / ** / API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories / prev.: -4.277 million bbl / actual: +0.68 million bbl / forecast: — / Brent – volatile

According to the American Petroleum Institute, US commercial crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 27. This marked the first increase in five weeks and stood in sharp contrast to the prior draw of 4.28 million barrels. Market participants had anticipated a further decline in stocks, but the build points to either softening demand or stronger supply. These figures are intensifying volatility across oil markets and may trigger a short-term correction in Brent prices to the downside.

June 9, 4:30 / China / *** / Consumer Inflation in June / prev.: -0.1% / actual: -0.1% / forecast: 0.0% / USD/CNY – down, Brent – up

China's consumer inflation remained at -0.1% year-on-year in May, matching April's figure. This underscores persistent pressure from weak domestic demand and external economic uncertainty. It was the fourth consecutive month of deflation. Non-food prices were unchanged despite moderate increases in housing, clothing, and medical services. Meanwhile, transportation costs fell further (-4.3% after -3.9% in April), and food prices continued to decline for a fourth straight month. Core inflation accelerated to 0.6%, the highest level since January. If the June reading comes in near zero, it may signal stabilization in consumer prices. This would support the yuan and strengthen expectations for raw material demand, including oil.

June 9, 4:30 / China / *** / Producer Price Index in June / prev.: -2.7% / actual: -3.3% / forecast: -3.2% / USD/CNY – down, Brent – up

The Producer Price Index in May fell to -3.3% year-over-year, coming in below both the forecast (-3.2%) and April's figure (-2.7%). This marked the steepest pace of deflation since July 2023 and the 32nd consecutive month of declining producer prices.

The main contribution came from cheaper raw materials and mining products, where the decline deepened to -11.9%.
Prices for processed goods also fell.
Durable goods and food continued to get cheaper.

If deflation in June remains close to the forecast, this will reinforce expectations of further economic support measures and contribute to yuan strength. It could also drive oil prices higher amid likely stimulus-driven demand.

June 9, 5:00 / New Zealand / *** / Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision / prev.: 3.50% / actual: 3.25% / forecast: 3.25% / NZD/USD – volatile

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier cut its benchmark interest rate to 3.25%, confirming preliminary expectations. This decision reflects the central bank's caution against the backdrop of easing inflationary pressure and global economic uncertainty. The regulator's commentary on future policy moves will be pivotal for the New Zealand dollar's trajectory. If dovish guidance persists, the likelihood of additional market volatility will increase.

June 9, 17:30 / US / ** / EIA US Crude Oil Inventories / prev.: -5.836 million bbl / actual: +3.845 million bbl / forecast: -0.418 million bbl / Brent – up

Commercial crude inventories in the US unexpectedly rose by 3.845 million barrels for the week ending June 27, while the market had anticipated a moderate drawdown. This marks the largest inventory build in the past three months. Meanwhile, volumes at the Cushing hub fell by 1.493 million barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by 4.188 million barrels, while distillates declined. The overall growth in inventories indicates weakening demand, but expectations of new support measures in China and seasonal factors could keep Brent prices near local highs.

June 7 – BRICS Summit
June 7 – Eurogroup Meeting
June 7, 11:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council Member Joachim Nagel / EUR/USD
June 8, 08:30 / Australia / Speech by RBA Assistant Governor (Economics) Sarah Hunter / AUD/USD
June 9, 02:00 / Australia / Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser / AUD/USD
June 9, 08:30 / Australia / Speech by RBA Assistant Governor (Economics) Sarah Hunter / AUD/USD
June 9, 12:30 / UK / Bank of England Financial Stability Report / GBP/USD
June 9, 13:45 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Executive Board Member Philip Lane / EUR/USD
June 9, 14:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos / EUR/USD
June 9, 15:15 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council Member Joachim Nagel / EUR/USD
June 9, 21:00 / US / Fed Minutes from the June 18 Meeting / USDX

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