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In his characteristic style, Donald Trump presented what he called the "greatest trade deal in history," claiming that Indonesia and Japan had opened their markets to American business for the first time. According to him, American companies would "make a fortune," and he was allegedly ready to "forever give up tariffs if the countries agree to open their markets to the US." The main condition: "Always – zero tariffs for America."
But how much does this statement reflect the real state of affairs? According to an official White House summary released on July 23, the essence of the deal is as follows:
Japan gets a reduced import duty rate—now 15% instead of the previous 27.5% on cars.
However, 50% tariffs on metals remain in place, and quotas on Japanese cars are completely lifted.
Formally, Japan "opens" its market and promises to eliminate tariffs on American goods.
An investment flow from Japan to the US is promised, amounting to $550 billion. Trump claims that 90% of the profit from these investments will go to the US. The investment areas range from shipbuilding to pharmaceuticals and rare earth mining.
The Japanese have promised to increase purchases of American rice by 75%, buy $8 billion worth of agricultural products (corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, aviation fuel), as well as purchase 100 Boeing aircraft and weapons (quantities unspecified).
There is mention of expanding the import of American energy resources (also without specific numbers).
And here is where doubts start to arise... First, the "90% profit share for the US" is economically unrealistic under real market conditions. Second, the agreement contains no deadlines, legal obligations, or clear implementation terms. It's a classic "framework" – a set of wishes and loud promises with no contractual commitments.
A similar approach was used by Trump in the deal with the UK. First, the countries receive concessions and preferences on exports (primarily cars), without offering anything specific in return. Is this the "promise trillions, invest not a cent" principle in action? As with the $5.1 trillion Middle East deal, it all comes down to a demonstration. These are not real agreements; they are political theater. No roadmap, no contracts, no commitments.
Moreover, there was no "closed" Japanese market for the U.S. to begin with. So, there was nothing to open. Nonetheless, the US president solemnly declares: "Japan will open its country to trade, including cars, rice, and other goods. And will pay the US reciprocal tariffs of 15%." But Japan won't actually pay! The money will come from American importers, retailers, and ultimately consumers. This is a regular tariff, which in essence acts as a tax on the domestic market.
Japan already buys $83.5 billion worth of goods from the US, while exporting almost $140.6 billion to the US. The US is a key market for Japan. And about 36% of all Japanese exports are cars. Now this segment will see nearly a 50% reduction in tariffs—from 27.5% to 15%. This means Japanese automakers breathe a sigh of relief. The benefit is clear. But what about the US? In effect, nothing at all.
The "breakthroughs" Trump has claimed are empty declarations. Yes, the tariffs have been reduced, but the blow fell on the American economy, not foreign suppliers. Where there was once a 10% tariff, now there's a 15% one. By the way, the deal with the UK also included export concessions, but in return, not a single obligation. So what do we have in the end? Japan is ahead, the US has higher taxes, and Trump delivers another loud speech.
For the markets, this is just background noise, not affecting fundamental evaluations. And amidst this noise, it has gone almost unnoticed that Trump Media (a company associated with US President Donald Trump's circle) purchased bitcoins for a colossal $2 billion. Max Keiser, a crypto advisor to the President of El Salvador, took note of this. He accused Donald Trump of outpacing his own country in the race for Bitcoin. According to Keiser, the US president is not just showing confidence in digital assets.
Trump is acting on the principle of "first for himself, then for the country." Keiser called it the "Great Divide," suggesting that the US leader decided to profit from the anticipated Bitcoin rally before the government starts building crypto reserves. In his view, this is an attempt to maximize personal gain by leveraging political power. The official version, of course, is different.
Trump's supporters argue that he is setting an example and personally investing in BTC before taxpayer money is involved. They claim that if the leader believes in the asset, then it's really worth betting on. However, Keiser has a different viewpoint: this is not about setting an example, but rather prioritizing personal gain. Interestingly, the purchase happened almost immediately after the signing of the GENIUS Act—an essential regulatory piece concerning stablecoin issuers.
Following this, Trump ordered that seized bitcoins be directed to the U.S. strategic reserve, and instructed the ministries to explore "neutral" methods of purchasing cryptocurrency—including acquisitions on the open market.
Bitcoin confidently remains above $118,000.
Its market capitalization is approaching $2.35 trillion.
Daily trading volume exceeds $70 billion.
Inflation was reduced from 9% to 2%.
Unemployment remains around 4%.
Stocks, Bitcoin, and gold have reached historical highs.
All of this is fueling interest from both institutional investors and politicians. Against this backdrop, Trump's actions—though controversial—appear to be a calculated move. But Keiser doesn't stop there. In a recent statement, he warned that US authorities could at any moment clear out corporate BTC reserves, especially from companies like Strategy, which are actively buying up Bitcoin at the expense of the dollar. In his opinion, the government may soon view the crypto strategies of companies as a threat to financial stability, leading to harsh measures.
Thus, a double game is unfolding on the political-financial field: Trump publicly lobbies for Bitcoin, but simultaneously uses his position to accumulate ahead of the curve. National interest or personal portfolio? The market will have to judge.
Another vector of Trump's persistent pressure is the U.S. Federal Reserve. It's important to note that under Jerome Powell:
And here comes the president with a "victorious deal," imposes an additional tax on his own economy, and demands Powell's resignation. On Thursday, Donald Trump scheduled a visit to the US central bank (Federal Reserve). The White House presented this as a routine meeting, but the market interpreted it as a potential act of pressure. The Republican leader, who has previously called Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a "moron," is once again returning to the old conflict. And this is clearly not a courtesy visit.
Once, Trump himself nominated Powell for the position of Fed Chair. Later, he was disappointed. The reason was simple: Powell refused to sharply cut interest rates. Democrat Joe Biden extended Powell's term until 2026, further fueling Trump's frustration. Now, it seems, he plans to take revenge personally. Recently, officials from the administration have criticized the Fed for overspending $700 million on the renovation of historic buildings in Washington.
White House Budget Director Russell Vought openly hinted at inefficiency, and possibly even manipulation. All this looked like a warm-up before Trump's visit. No information has been provided about the planned meeting with Powell. Financial markets perceived the situation cautiously, but without panic. The yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds remained at 4.387%, and the dollar weakened slightly. Nevertheless, it's clear to everyone that the threat to the independence of the US Federal Reserve is back on the agenda.
Trump continues his aggressive campaign for rate cuts. He is demanding the key rate be lowered to 1%—more than four times lower than the current level (4.25–4.50%). This would drastically reduce borrowing costs and help finance budget deficits, especially with his new spending package and tax cuts. However, none of the 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) even remotely predict such a rate.
The softest forecasts suggest a decrease to 2.25–2.50% over two years. The market expects the next rate cut only in September. In the meantime, everything remains unchanged. Former Fed leaders Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen sharply criticized Trump's rhetoric. In an article for The New York Times, they warned that political pressure on the Fed could undermine confidence in the institution and cause long-term harm to the US economy. "The authority of the Fed is built on its ability to make unpopular but data-driven decisions. To destroy this is to harm the foundation of the entire financial system," they wrote.
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that if a new candidate is appointed, his name won't be announced until at least December. This statement somewhat cooled the markets but did not ease the tension. Analysts see Trump's visit not as a working trip, but as an element of intimidation. His style does not suggest diplomacy. And while U.S. presidents used to respect the independence of the central bank, Trump is breaking the rules again. He wants a cheap dollar, wants controlled inflation, and wants all of it—immediately. So, who will win? Powell vs. the economy, or Trump vs. Powell?
June 24, 2:00 AM/Australia/*/ Manufacturing PMI for July (leading indicator)/ Previous: 51.0 / Actual: 50.6 / Forecast: 50.4 / AUD/USD – down**
In June, Australia's manufacturing PMI from S&P Global dropped to 50.6, its lowest level since February. The decline was linked to the first decrease in new orders in five months, due to excessive inventories and worsening market conditions. External demand fell sharply, which participants attributed to the protectionist trade policy of the US. Purchasing volumes decreased for the second consecutive month, and inventories continued to shrink. However, employment remained positive, though the increase was the weakest since February. The decline in new orders, combined with productivity growth, led to a further reduction in the volume of unfinished orders. If the forecast for July proves correct, it would confirm a moderate slowdown in the sector and put additional pressure on the Australian dollar.
June 24, 3:30 AM/Japan/*/ Manufacturing PMI for July (leading indicator)/ Previous: 49.4 / Actual: 50.1 / Forecast: 50.2 / USD/JPY – down**
In June, Japan's manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank rose to 50.1, marking the first increase since May of the previous year. However, the figure was revised downward from the preliminary estimate of 50.4. The improvement was driven by a resumption of output growth and increased employment. However, overall new orders continued to decline under the pressure of US tariffs, which also affected consumer purchasing activity. Input price inflation accelerated after May's low, driven by rising costs for:
Commodities
Energy
Transportation
Against this backdrop, output prices also rose. Manufacturers' optimism grew, reaching its highest level since February. If the July forecast is confirmed, the yen could remain stable.
June 24, 9:00 AM/Germany/*/ GfK Consumer Climate Index for August (leading indicator)/ Previous: -20.0 / Actual: -20.3 / Forecast: -19.0 / EUR/USD – up**
Germany's GfK Consumer Climate Index dropped to -20.3 in July. This is the first deterioration in the past four months, reflecting the continued caution among households. The propensity to save reached its highest level since April (13.9 points). At the same time, the willingness to make major purchases remained at a low level (-6.2 points), which analysts attribute to the uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy. Economic expectations improved significantly, reaching 20.1 points—the highest level since early 2022. The growth in optimism was fueled by planned government investments in defense and infrastructure, as well as continuing expectations of income growth. If the forecast for August is confirmed, it will strengthen the euro due to improving consumer sentiment.
June 24, 10:30 AM/Germany/*/ Manufacturing PMI for July (leading indicator)/ Previous: 48.3 / Actual: 49.0 / Forecast: 49.4 / EUR/USD – up**
Germany's June manufacturing PMI from HCOB increased to 49.0, its highest since August 2022. While the index remains below the neutral level, the trend signals a gradual recovery. The most robust growth in orders since March 2022 was supported by both domestic and foreign demand. Production rose for the fourth consecutive month, and purchasing activity showed its first growth in three years. However, the volume of unfinished orders and employment continued to decrease, indicating insufficient capacity utilization. A positive factor was the decrease in raw material costs due to intensified supplier competition and a weaker dollar. Business optimism reached its highest point in two and a half years. If the July forecast materializes, the euro could receive additional support.
June 24, 11:00 AM/ Eurozone/* Manufacturing PMI for July (leading indicator) / Previous: 49.4 / Actual: 49.5 / Forecast: 49.8 / EUR/USD – up**
The June manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, according to HCOB, reached 49.5, showing a modest improvement compared to May. The pace of the sector's decline was the weakest in almost three years. Companies continued to increase output for the fourth consecutive month, despite stabilizing new orders. A reduction in purchases and a moderate decline in staff numbers indicate cautious business adaptation to the persistent weakness in demand. Meanwhile, the easing of price pressures, due to lower resource costs, contributed to cheaper products. Business sentiment rose to its highest level since early 2022. If the July forecast is confirmed, the euro will receive additional upward momentum.
June 24, 11:30 AM/ United Kingdom/* Manufacturing PMI for July (leading indicator) / Previous: 46.4 / Actual: 47.7 / Forecast: 48.0 / GBP/USD – up**
The UK manufacturing PMI in June increased to 47.7, the highest level since January, signaling a slowdown in the pace of decline in the sector. According to S&P Global, the drop in new orders was the smallest in nine months, despite ongoing demand weakness linked to tariff policies, geopolitics, and economic uncertainty. External demand also fell, especially from the US, Europe, and China. Manufacturing volumes continued to shrink, but less sharply, and employment declined for the eighth consecutive month. Cost pressures persisted, with increases in supply and labor costs, partly offset by higher output prices. If the July forecast materializes, the pound could gain additional support amid signs of industrial stabilization.
June 24, 1:00 PM/ United Kingdom/* Manufacturing Confidence Index for Q3 (leading indicator) / Previous: -47.0 / Actual: -33.0 / Forecast: -31.0 / GBP/USD – up**
According to the Confederation of British Industry, the manufacturing confidence index for the UK rose to -33 in April from -47 in the previous quarter. Despite the fourth consecutive period of pessimism, this was the smallest decline in a year. Manufacturing activity continued to decline but at a more moderate pace, and expectations for mid-year remain cautious. Both domestic and external demand remain weak, hindering the recovery of orders. Meanwhile, manufacturing costs have increased and are expected to continue rising in Q3. If the business confidence index comes close to the forecast value of -31, the pound could gain further support due to reduced negative sentiment in the industry.
June 24, 3:15 PM, 3:45 PM/ Eurozone/* European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference / Previous: 2.4% / Actual: 2.15% / Forecast: 2.15% / EUR/USD – up**
The ECB earlier kept the key interest rate at 2.15%, in line with expectations, likely marking the end of the current easing cycle. This was the eighth consecutive rate cut, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since late 2022. Against the backdrop of achieving the inflation target (2%) and favorable factors like a strong euro, lower energy prices, and cheaper imports, the regulator is maintaining a cautious approach. Additional uncertainty stems from trade risks related to potential U.S. tariffs. Market expectations suggest only one additional rate adjustment by the end of the year, but not before December. If the regulator's rhetoric continues to confirm a pause in rate cuts, this will support the euro.
June 24, 3:30 PM/ Canada/* Retail Sales Growth in May (M/M) / Previous: 0.8% / Actual: 0.3% / Forecast: -1.1% / USD/CAD – up**
Retail sales in Canada rose by 0.3% in May. This figure was weaker than the preliminary estimate (0.5%) and below April's 0.8% increase. The largest contribution came from automobile and parts sales (+1.9%), as well as the hobby and furniture segments. Food products showed a modest gain (+0.2%). At the same time, a decline in gasoline sales (-2.7%) was recorded despite increased volumes. Preliminary estimates suggest a 1.1% drop in retail sales in June, the sharpest since March 2023. This could reflect the impact of new U.S. tariffs and a reduction in consumer activity. If the forecasted decline materializes, the Canadian dollar may remain under pressure.
June 24, 3:30 PM/ USA/* Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June / Previous: -0.36 / Actual: -0.28 / Forecast: -0.10 / USDX (6-currency index USD) – up**
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.28 in May from -0.36 in April, but remained below the long-term trend. Of the four components, two showed improvement, while three continued to exert a restraining influence on overall activity:
Manufacturing contribution: -0.11 vs. -0.18 in the previous month
Sales, orders, and inventories category: 0 (from -0.14)
Consumption and housing worsened to -0.12
Employment fell to -0.05
Despite partial recovery, the index remains negative, signaling a moderately restrained economic state. If June data come closer to the forecast of -0.10, the dollar will receive support from signs of recovery in activity.
June 24, 3:30 PM/ USA/* Initial Jobless Claims for the Week / Previous: 228K / Actual: 221K / Forecast: 228K / USDX (6-currency index USD) – down**
In the second week of July, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the US dropped to 221K, which was better than expected and the lowest since April. The number of continuing claims hardly changed, standing at 1.956 million, which is lower than expected and significantly below the peak values of 2021. This confirms the continued strength of the US labor market, although hiring rates are gradually slowing. A particular focus was the rise in claims among federal employees, which reached 596, the highest in seven weeks, reflecting cuts in the government sector. The increase in unemployment claims may slightly limit the dollar.
June 24, 5:00 PM/ USA/* New Home Sales Growth in June (M/M) / Previous: 722K / Actual: 623K / Forecast: 650K / USDX (6-currency index USD) – up**
In May, sales of new single-family homes in the US dropped by 13.7% to 623K, the lowest level since June 2022. These figures were notably worse than the forecast and offset the upward revision in April. The main reasons were high mortgage rates and ongoing economic uncertainty, which are keeping buyers from closing deals. Despite this, the median price increased to $507K, and the supply indicator reached 9.8 months. If June confirms the forecast of 650K, the dollar could gain support.
June 24, 6:05 AM/ Australia / Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock / AUD/USD
June 24, 3:45 PM/ Eurozone / Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD
Speeches by key central bank officials are also expected during these days. Their comments typically cause volatility in the foreign exchange market as they may hint at the regulators' future plans regarding interest rates.
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